Obama may have gotten 52% of the votes – but – Conservatives were the winners of this election!
Posted by: The BoBo // Category: America, Congress, Conservative, Constitution, Democrats, Elections, Liberals, McCain, Obama, Politics, President, RINO, Republicans, Socialism, Taxes, government, marxism
What? BoBo – you must be out of your freakin’ mind! How the hell do you figure that? Obama won a clear majority of the votes. Republicans got their asses handed to them again in Congress. Republicans barely held on to a filibuster proof minority! Oh – I get it – you’ve been hittin’ that sauce a bit too hard since the election ended. You need to sober your ass up and join us in the real world!
Okay – now that we’ve gotten that out of the way. Here’s why I am saying that – I came across two really good posts at some lefty blogs today: (well this appears to be a lefty blog – can’t quite figure this guy out) – Fearless History – On Conservatism and the other post comes from Left of Center – Dissention in the ranks?
Fearless History goes on to point out the differences between classical conservatism versus the neoconservative. I would have to agree with his assessment – in doing so – this puts me staunchly and squarely in the classical conservative category.
Left of Center discusses the possible fracture of the Republican party as a result of this past election. He pits the GOP against the Conservative base. He posits that the GOP will be forever fractured and a new third party of conservatives will emerge as a result. Based on Fearless’ definition of classical conservative and neoconservative – those that Left of Center believes will emerge as a third party would be those neoconservatives.
Go ahead – check out those two posts – then come back over here and see how these posts brought me to the conclusion that conservatives actually won this election.
Okay – your back – good! The conservatives actually won this election. Remember, Republican is a party. Conservatism is a system of beliefs and values as it relates to government. You can be a Liberal, Moderate, or Conservative Republican – and the same goes for Democrats. John McCain is a liberal Republican (RINO) – that’s why he lost. Obama by no means was given a mandate when he won this election. It was reported that the turnout for this election was the same as 2004. Yet, the Democrats registered 700,000 more new voters and the Republicans lost 1 million (a net deficit for Republicans of 1.7 million) – and there was a very large new voter turnout that ever before. So – what happened to the rest of the voters?
The voters that John McCain needed to win stayed home or voted for a third party candidate. The total number of votes for 3rd party candidates was approximately 1.5 million. Even if McCain picked up those votes – he still could not have won. However, when you look at it by total states won – Obama only won 28 to McCain’s 22. Obama picked up a few traditionally red states. But – in those traditionally Red states that Obama won the electoral and popular vote – Republican Congressmen and Senators were still overwhelmingly voted in to office. Where the Republicans lost seats were those traditionally Blue states that had Republican senators and representatives. Those guys were tossed out.
Okay – so – it still looks like I’m losing my case – right? Wrong. There were a total of approximately 124 Million votes cast this election (Obama won 52% to 47%). In 2004 there were approximately 122 Million votes cast (Bush won 51% to 48%). There were only 400K third party votes in 2004. So – we need to understand 1.) why were there 1 million more 3d party votes this year compared to 2004, 2.) If there were only 700,000 new Democrat voters – where did the other 2 million come from, and 3.) why did the Republicans lose seats if the Democrat led congress is at a historical low of 9%.
To answer the first question – the difference is directly proportionate to the number of registered Republicans lost. They either changed party affiliation to independent or to a third party. Conservative Republicans have been EXTREMELY pissed at the way Repubs have lost their way in D.C. – I will attest to that as I am now a registered Independent. I’m one of those who defected from the Republican party out of disgust.
To answer the second question – There are 72 million registered Democrat voters. Obama won with 65 million – some of those being Independents and pissed off Republican voters. The Obama campaign did a helluva job mobilizing those registered voters who usually don’t come out to vote. In addition – he mobilized the youth vote. Obama capitalized on technology by setting up social networks and using text messages – considering McCain doesn’t even use e-mail or a computer (due to his injuries) – he missed the boat on capturing the attention of the youth voters. Either way – there were still a large majority of registered Democrat voters that did not turn out for Obama – but – enough to win with independents and Republican defectors.
There are 55 Million registered Republican Voters and 42 million registered independents. McCain received 56 million votes – 1 million more than registered Republican voters. So where did all of those votes come from? If you figure 27% of the total voters were Independents as reported by all the pollsters – and Obama got 56% of them and McCain would receive 42% – then 14 million of the votes that McCain received are Independents. However, according to Affinnova - there was about a 10% defection rate for Democrats. That means that about 7.2 million who voted for McCain are registered Democrats. By process of elimination – McCain only received 36 million votes from registered Republicans. This means that about 19 million registered republican voters stayed home this past election. McCain lost by 8 million.
I know, I know – that’s a helluva lot of freakin’ numbers there BoBo! WTF are you doing, man! Just stating my case. According to the latest results from the American Issues Project - Republican voters who did turn out – voted against the Republican party because they lost their way. AMEN, Brother! That’s what I was saying – here’s some of that article:
The decisive defeat Republicans suffered in Tuesday’s election came because conservative voters decided the party had lost its way, not because the electorate has shifted to the left, according to Issue Autopsy ’08,
“Tuesday’s elections were a shellacking that revealed the Republican brand is diluted to the point where the American people do not really know what the GOP stands for anymore,” said Ed Martin, the organization’s president. “The clear lesson from the American Issues Project survey is that while the United States remains a center-right country, voters no longer trust the Republican Party to represent those interests in Washington.”
The survey found that approximately 72 percent of those voters agreed that: “The Republican Party used to stand for keeping government spending under control, but not anymore.” More than 75 percent of likely voters agreed with the statement: “When the Republican Party took control of Congress in 1994, they promised to reform government and clean up corruption in Washington, but they failed to live up to that promise.”
Respondents gave Democrats huge edges on fiscal issues, typically a Republican strength.
So – my friends – Obama may have gotten the votes – but – it was Conservatives who really won! The conservative electorate has chosen to give the country over to the Dems for three purposes – 1.) To weed out those moderate Republicans from D.C. who lost their way by voting their asses out, and 2.) To let the country see just what happens when a far-left socialist President and Congress has power, and 3.) To energize the conservative base and give the GOP the opportunity to recreate itself and to go back to their roots.
IF – and that is a very big IF – the GOP gets the message – and if the Dems do exactly what we expect them to do (they have totally misinterpreted the results of this election again – just as they did in 2004) – come 2010 – there will be more Republicans put back in the house and the senate. Maybe not enough to gain back the majority – but, enough to start the momentum going in to 2012. If true classical conservatives (as detailed by Fearless History) get back to their roots of small government, lower taxes, and free-market capitalism – and can prove by their actions in D.C. – we will see a true Conservative (not neocon) Republican President in 2012 with a Republican majority again.
The Obama win is a loss for Republicans – but – not for conservatism! Conservatism is just as strong today as it ever has been. Now – the GOP just needs to remember that. The fact that they shoved a RINO down our throats as the candidate – and the fact that he lost – should REALLY hammer that home to them. Now is not the time for conservatives to be hanging our heads. Now is the time to re-unite and to continue to send the message to the GOP. Return to your Reagan conservative roots – and – WE THE PEOPLE will put you back in control.
Tags: blogging, blogs, Congress, Conservatism, Conservative, conservatives, Democrats, election, government, Liberals, McCain, Obama, Politics, Reagan, registered voters, Republicans, RINO, Socialism
November 11th, 2008 at 2:01 am
[...] Obama may have gotten 52% of the votes – but – Conservatives were … There were only 400K third party votes in 2004. So – we need to understand 1.) why were there 1 million more 3d party votes this year compared to 2004, 2.) If there were only 700000 new Democrat voters – where did the other 2 million … [...]
Reply to Obama may have gotten 52% of the votes - but - Conservatives were …
November 11th, 2008 at 2:08 am
[...] Obama may have gotten 52% of the votes – but – Conservatives were … Left of Center discusses the possible fracture of the Republican party as a result of this past election. He pits the GOP against the Conservative base. He posits that the GOP will be forever fractured and a new third party of … [...]
Reply to Obama may have gotten 52% of the votes - but - Conservatives were …
November 11th, 2008 at 2:58 am
I’ve been reading along for a while now. I just wanted to drop you a comment to say keep up the good work.
Reply to Jamie Holts
November 11th, 2008 at 5:10 am
Damn. You claimed these huge mandates in 2000, 2002, and 2004, when it was at least arguable that you sorta had one-but you’re STILL “wwinning” in the worst rout of the Goppers since Nixon!
I know that you’re supposed to make lemonade when life gives you lemons, but I believe you left your lemonade to ferment on the kitchen counter.
Reply to JollyRoger
November 11th, 2008 at 12:35 pm
As a former Reform Party member, I would love to see a strong third party come about to challenge the platforms of the Republican and Democratic parties. I had hopes that the Libertarian and Constitution parties would make such a challenge, but they have yet to do so. If the Republican party were to split, I would think that the Constitution and Libertarian parties be the largest beneficiaries, but I think you would then end up with three nearly equal parties in size rather than two, since the core Republican party would remain. I would imagine they would caucus with each other in Congress, but it would also lead to a larger Democratic majority with these three “conservative” parties battling against each other for votes.
U.S. Common Senses last blog post..A quarter million and going strong
Reply to U.S. Common Sense
November 11th, 2008 at 1:21 pm
@Jolly Roger – duck and weave man! I would hardly say we declared a mandate in 2000 or 2002. In 2004 – I do recall someone saying that Bush had a mandate – but – I didn’t see it that way. But – again – Obama may have gotten 52% of the vote – but – when you start looking at the numbers and votes in the Red States – it is still clear – the conservatives won this election by clearing out the bad eggs. We have some pretty solid conservatives still left up there in D.C. – this makes way for our comeback in 2010 and 2012. I know it pisses you guys off on the left – but – the majority of this country does not agree with socialism – and – as soon as Obama starts trampling on the constitution and taking away fundamental rights such as Freedom of Speech and Freedom to bare arms – you will see an uprising like never before – and Obama will only be a one term Pres and Congress will be Conservative again. True conservatism – that which makes this country great!
@US – I see you may be siding a bit with Left of Center’s piece. It does have some merit to it – that’s why I linked back to it. However, considering we’re still a center-right nation – I tend to believe the GOP will move back to the right and regain its values. If the GOP does splinter – and – if a stronger 3d party emerges as you suspect – there will still be a Dem majority running the show. But, as you pointed out, the good thing would be they would be blocked because of the combined majority of the other two parties.
I actually was considering voting for Castle/Baldwin from the Constitution party. I’ll keep my eye on them.
Reply to The BoBo
November 11th, 2008 at 1:53 pm
First, thanks for the link, Bobo.
Okay, some things to consider:
In 1980, the patron saint of the right-wing, Ronald Reagan, won his mandate with 50.7% of the popular vote.
In 2004, as most of you will remember, Bush claimed a “clear mandate” with 50.7% of the popular vote, and record turn-out.
Barack Obama has won the election with 52% of the popular vote, and shattering the record turn-out, with more people casting votes for him (over 63 million) than any other candidate in the history of this country.
Really, the logic is simple: If the right-wing says that Obama is a ‘socialist’, and the overwhelming majority of a record turn-out in this country voted him into office….how in the hell can we be a “center-right nation?”
Here’s a great analysis of the 2008 election results: http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mejn/election/2008/
At any rate, the Democrats need to work very, very hard to maintain the gains they’ve made in this election and continue on the path of gaining more voters. Now, I want them to perform. Performance will be the biggest determiner of continued success, I think.
Marks last blog post..Neocons, Iran and al-Qaeda…oh my!
Reply to Mark
November 11th, 2008 at 2:06 pm
I don’t completely agree with the fearless history post. One of those is his line in the “classical conservative” section about having a smaller military. If that were true then Reagan was not a classical conservative considering he massively built up our armies and military spending.
I also take some issue with the wire-tapping section simply because it can be seen as contradicting a former point he made. He said classical conservatism is meant to protect and preserve the rights this country grants, one which I consider to be the right to life. Wire taps have helped in preventing terrorist attacks which would have taken lives so to simply say that wire taps on terrorists or U.S. citizens that are terrorist sympathizers are completely opposite of the classical conservative view is not cut and dry to me. I do agree neo-conservatives put to much government into peoples lives but I’m not sure this is the best example. Fearless generalizes the issue into suggesting the government is wiretapping every U.S. citizen all the time.
I also strongly disagree with the notion that there are a large number of the Christian religious in this country that don’t think of Muslim’s as human. That whole section sounds like a b.s. point to make it sound like a true classical conservative would support the liberal view of opposing the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
In totality I would argue that neo-conservatism is better described as liberalism in disguise.
John Kaduks last blog post..Russia Starts Taking Advantage Of Obama
Reply to John Kaduk
November 11th, 2008 at 2:29 pm
@John – I didn’t entirely agree with every single point he made in his comparisons either – but, I didn’t want to rehash all of them over here. It was because of some of those points that prompted me to write this post. I think he mixed some libertarian views in with conservatism – which are opposites in may ways. You are correct regarding the military – conservatives are very strong advocates of national security to include a large military. Not sure how he came to the conclusion that conservatives are for smaller military. That’s actually a liberal stance.
I think he made a good attempt at it – but was a little off…but…that’s why I sent you guys over there.
@Mark – you prove my point – you guys have totally misinterpreted the results of this election just as you did in 2004 when Dems took control of Congress. You can point to the social issues alone that were on the ballots in CA, FL, and AZ where voters overwhelmingly voted to add amendments to their constitutions regarding marriage. Conservatives did some more housecleaning this election cycle as they did in 2004 – getting rid of those RINOs. Sometimes, the house has to get dirtier during the clean up in order to straighten it up!
Reply to The BoBo
November 11th, 2008 at 3:03 pm
@ Mark
You ask, how can this be a center-right country if we elected Obama and he is a socialist. Easily. Let us not forget that the majority of the people in this country, even the voting block, are uniformed about politics and this election in general. Yes people like me, Bobo, and maybe yourself followed this extremely closey, but even most people who voted vote on what the candidates say, not what they have done. They don’t look into past votes, associations, and ideologies closely. There a few buzz issues and people vote on what sounds best. Hence why tax cuts will often win you the election.
I believe if you gave people a questionarre that objectively asked where they stood on issues and ideology that most people in this country would come down on the right. Problem is, that is never done objectively and most people don’t even know what conservative truly is. I find this out almost every time I talk to someone who is not politically infatuated like me. They don’t want to be on the “right” or “left” because that is “partisan” and makes you sound unwilling to give other people’s ideas a chance. A lot of people hear MSNBC and CNN either portray or hint at Conservatives as religious nut jobs who just want to go to war. Of course people will not want to be on the “right” then. But as I said if people honestly sat down and went through the issues and ideologies without labels and preconceived notions I think they would find themself to be Conservative. This is how I “stumbled” across the fact I was conservative.
Secondly you will notice that Obama won by portraying himself as “conservative” on many issues. For example he portrayed himself as a tax cutter (a conservative principle) despite the fact that he has never cut taxes (including in the Illinois state senate where campaigned on tax cuts and then never even attempted it). You will also notice that when he looked weak on military topics (typically a strong republican issue) like the surge, he then came back around and talked about how important Afghanistan was and trying to sound like a hardened right winger by saying he would strike into Pakistan despite their protests. Most of all you heard him talking about “personal responsibility” in his speeches despite the fact that his past actions and current policies push a “let the government do it for you” mentality.
Yes Obama is a socialist but most voters where still uninformed and voted on what the candidates said, not what they did. When Obama needed to get elected he did not campaign on his beliefs, he hid them. Instead he campaigned as conservative on top issues like tax cuts and personal responsibility.
John Kaduks last blog post..Russia Starts Taking Advantage Of Obama
Reply to John Kaduk
November 11th, 2008 at 6:37 pm
I would love to see the GOP return to fiscal conservatism instead of this bullshit religious conservatism….just don’t see that happening anytime soon….damnit…..
side note – Bobo…how do I go about getting a picture by my name? Since I’m slowly climbing the comment charts I want everyone to see how sexy I am….
phuckpoliticss last blog post..Only in America
Reply to phuckpolitics
November 12th, 2008 at 3:57 am
A lot of great posts here. Again, I find myself agreeing with Bobo wholeheartedly. Conservatives and registered Republicans are indeed disgusted with the “compassionate conservatism” (Read: Big government conservatism) of the last eight years or so; it has deviated far from many core conservative principles. (Dick Armey had a great piece in the WSJ recently on this very subject: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122602742263407769.html) If republicans return to their core beliefs, they will rise to power again. I have little doubt about this.
I would like to add to John Kaduk’s great comment on voters: the rational voter is a myth. Most voters wish to inform themselves about issues (in an attempt to be objectionable) without sacrificing their worldview. Hence, they end up having a distorted picture of important issues from the get-go.
vulcanhammers last blog post..Best post I’ve read today…
Reply to vulcanhammer
November 12th, 2008 at 11:55 am
@John Kaduk – excellent follow-up. Couldn’t have said it better myself
@phuckpolitics – I’m looking forward to that day myself. Regarding the image – you will need to create an avatar – you can sign up here http://en.gravatar.com/. Once you create one, every time you sign in here – it will automatically link to it.
@vulcanhammer – thanks for that link. Good article. Regarding your other comment about the voters – if only they were all political junkies like us – perhaps we’d have a smarter electorate that actual votes intelligently instead of emotionally!
Reply to The BoBo